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Violence in Mexico Declines


alex45920

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The president, the interior minister and the attorney general have all been touting declining rates of violence in Mexico as evidence that the federal government's anti-crime policies are having a positive effect. Where do they get their figures and statistics? How realistic are their claims? Here's an interesting article on the subject from Insight Crime...

Mexico President Trumpets Lower Murder Rates But Problems Persist

http://www.insightcrime.org/news-analysis/mexico-president-trumpets-security-improvements

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Well, we all know he's not much of a reader. Perhaps he just took a took at the charts in this report from INEGI.

http://www.inegi.org.mx/inegi/contenidos/espanol/prensa/Boletines/Boletin/Comunicados/Especiales/2014/julio/comunica3.pdf

He might have taken a look at the charts in this report as well.

http://www.animalpolitico.com/2014/06/estos-son-los-municipios-con-mayor-ambiente-de-violencia-segun-segob/#axzz34MIiv700

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You know, Alex, Violent crimes such as Extortion and Kidnappings have increased dramatically this year. Why is that ignored in your reporting? Why don't they give sources? You need to tell it like it is, Alex, not "sugar coat" it. OK?

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I feel it is possible that extortion and kidnapping reported to authorities has increased lately and is in the reports. Possibly before less people reported it as it is a dangerous thing to report. I also feel it is usually not reported and the statistics of the real numbers are unknowable.

Is it possible more people are reporting it because they are less afraid of retribution than previously or are the same percentage reporting it as previously and the sample numbers show an actual increase or are less people reporting it now than previously and the increase in victims is more substantial? Who knows for sure?

One thing is if it goes unreported it will not show up in any statistics only in speculations based on the know sample that is documented.

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I feel it is possible that extortion and kidnapping reported to authorities has increased lately and is in the reports. Possibly before less people reported it as it is a dangerous thing to report. I also feel it is usually not reported and the statistics of the real numbers are unknowable.

Is it possible more people are reporting it becuase they are less afraid of retribution than previously or are the same percentage reporting it as previously and the sample numbers show an actual increase or are less people reporting it now than previously and the increase in victims is more substantial? Who knows for sure?

One thing is if it goes unreported it will not show up in any statistics only in speculations based on the know sample that is documented.

I certainly agree with your analysis, Alan...especially in Michoacan, where corrupt public officials and police were responsible for much of the extortion and kidnapping. Now that the feds are making an effort to clean things up, the general population actually has someone to whom they can report these crimes.

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Now that the feds are making an effort to clean things up, the general population actually has someone to whom they can report these crimes.

You really believe the things you write?

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As pointed out in the original post and by some of the comments in this thread, many people remain skeptical of the figures cited by federal officials which indicate decreasing violent crime rates in Mexico. Some of the government's own statistical reports even give conflicting information. Here's a follow-up to the article referenced in the original post. From Insight Crime...

Conflicting Crime Stats Call Mexico Security Narrative into Question

http://www.insightcrime.org/news-briefs/onc-conflicting-mexico-crime-statistics

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From a friend who keeps up on these things.

_ Missing in Mexico: The Mexican government increased the number of people who have disappeared since the start of the country’s drug war in 2006 and now lists 22,322 as missing, officials said this week. Assistant Attorney General Mariana Benitez said 12,532 people went missing during the 2006-12 administration of President Felipe Calderon. An additional 9,790 have disappeared since President Enrique Peña Nieto took office on Dec. 1, 2012.

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From a friend who keeps up on these things.

_ Missing in Mexico: The Mexican government increased the number of people who have disappeared since the start of the country’s drug war in 2006 and now lists 22,322 as missing, officials said this week. Assistant Attorney General Mariana Benitez said 12,532 people went missing during the 2006-12 administration of President Felipe Calderon. An additional 9,790 have disappeared since President Enrique Peña Nieto took office on Dec. 1, 2012.

If these stats are anywhere near correct (typically they are Very low), that projects to about 30,000 missing in the 6 year term of EPN and 12,500 for Calderon. Doesn't compute that Mexico is safer now, quite the contrary.

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It's easy to be lulled into a false sense that things are better now in Mexico. The federal government and some state governments have put the clamps on journalists, no longer allowing publication of atrocities or other incidents linked to organized crime. Journalists themselves have become less willing to write or speak out about organized crime. Only this week another journalist was assassinated in northern Mexico. We have noticed that the two television journalists that we watch frequently have given less and less attention to organized crime. Aristegui continues to be one of the only journalists who is willing to speak out--a very brave woman indeed.

The government apparently believes that we are like those three famous monkeys: hear no evil, see no evil, speak no evil. The result? Unless we continue to pursue the trail of what is TRULY going on in this country, we'll believe the statistical lies that the government would have us take for the truth. It's hard work and disillusioning to look beyond the bougainvillea to see behind the wall of lies. Nonetheless, where would you rather live? In denial, or in the real light of day?

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If these stats are anywhere near correct (typically they are Very low), that projects to about 30,000 missing in the 6 year term of EPN and 12,500 for Calderon. Doesn't compute that Mexico is safer now, quite the contrary.

Under the Calderon regime, there was no attempt to reconcile the number of people reported as missing with the number who were later found. More than half of the missing are later found, most of them alive and well. The figures for the Calderon regime have been reconciled to reflect the number of missing people who have since been located. The figures for the Pena regime only reflect those reported as missing and will eventually be reconciled to reflect those who were found. It's a statistical glitch that has been misinterpreted and misreported. Here's a more detailed and explanatory press report from Sinembargo...

El Gobierno de México reconoce 22 mill 322 casos de personas desaparacidas

http://www.sinembargo.mx/22-08-2014/1094813

Google Translation:

http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sinembargo.mx%2F22-08-2014%2F1094813

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Under the Calderon regime, there was no attempt to reconcile the number of people reported as missing with the number who were later found. More than half of the missing are later found, most of them alive and well. The figures for the Calderon regime have been reconciled to reflect the number of missing people who have since been located. The figures for the Pena regime only reflect those reported as missing and will eventually be reconciled to reflect those who were found. It's a statistical glitch that has been misinterpreted and misreported. Here's a more detailed and explanatory press report from Sinembargo...

REALLY? How fortunate. Did they all just go for a nice vacation and decide finally to return? How funny you can be, Alex, with your stat. reporting. EPN can insist all he wants, but he can't give real, creditable sources. I choose to live in the light of day, Alex, you can live in denial.

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Well, Jim Bowie, you're certainly entitled to your own opinion. Here's mine:

During the first year and a half of the EPN regime, as violent crime rates continued to rise in Mexico, the opponents and critics of Mr. Pena declared, "Statistics don't lie, Pena's anti-crime program is a failure." Now, as the statistics indicate a decrease in violent crime, those same critics claim the data is false. I say you can't have it both ways.

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In case you missed it the first time, here's a link to the report from INEGI, which indicates a declining homicide rate. INEGI is the nonpartisan Mexican government agency charged with keeping statistics and taking the census. The first page of the report is in Spanish but the rest of it is composed of charted data and quite easy to follow if you only read English.

http://www.inegi.org.mx/inegi/contenidos/espanol/prensa/Boletines/Boletin/Comunicados/Especiales/2014/julio/comunica3.pdf

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Well, Jim Bowie, you're certainly entitled to your own opinion. Here's mine:

During the first year and a half of the EPN regime, as violent crime rates continued to rise in Mexico, the opponents and critics of Mr. Pena declared, "Statistics don't lie, Pena's anti-crime program is a failure." Now, as the statistics indicate a decrease in violent crime, those same critics claim the data is false. I say you can't have it both ways.

I say if you count them the same way they were counted 4 years ago, crime has risen. Let's not change the rules to make us feel "safe" and to keep them tourists coming, and make the government smell sweet. Sorry, Alex, but you couldn't be "objective" if your job depended on it.

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