michael2595 Posted June 27, 2018 Report Share Posted June 27, 2018 12 hours ago, Jreboll said: And of course AMLO is still favored to win Looks like its built into the value of the peso leading up to the election and what happens after the election should be very interesting to see what will happen with the peso. Traders love volatility . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bisbee Gal Posted June 29, 2018 Report Share Posted June 29, 2018 Currently at 19.70 (Friday AM) http://uk.businessinsider.com/mexico-election-peso-is-rallying-ahead-of-vote-2018-6 Quote The Mexican peso was up more than 2% versus the greenback on Thursday. Mexico holds elections on Sunday. Follow the Mexican peso in real time here. The Mexican peso rallied Thursday as the country gears up for its presidential election this weekend. The peso was up 2.15% versus the dollar at 2 p.m. ET. Javier Guzman, the Banco de Mexico's deputy governor, said Thursday the new government will need to lay out its economic policies "as soon as the electoral process is concluded" and didn't rule out additional rate hikes, even after the central bank raised its main rate last week to the highest it's been since 2009. The peso has slid nearly 9% since March, when leftist presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador gained a double-digit lead. Three polls out last weekend showed Lopez Obrador ahead of his closest rival, Ricardo Anaya of the conservative National Action Party, by more than 20 percentage points. Analysts say a win for the former Mexico City mayor is now essentially priced into the peso. But some are remaining cautious on concerns surrounding the populist policies he floated on the campaign trail. "A looser fiscal stance under Amlo may help to boost growth next year, but we are concerned that more populist and unpredictable policymaking will weigh on growth over the longer term," Edward Glossop, an economist at Capital Economics who specializes in Latin America, said. The presidential hopeful has said he wants to increase social spending and eliminate foreign participation in Mexico’s energy sector. He has also taken hits at President Donald Trump, and analysts say he could ratchet up tensions between the US and Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
utilitus Posted June 29, 2018 Author Report Share Posted June 29, 2018 Forex trading 'institutionally' goes on 24/5 between Sunday 22:00 UTC through Friday 22:00 UTC. Even though AMLO is predicted to win, it may take some hours or days to establish that, and its' policy implications, and the inability of forex markets (traders and their robot peons) to react until Sunday night probably is contributing to MXN volatility in prepositioning. AFAIK, forex is the most speculative and dynamic market of all, and reacts to a sort of hierarchy of factors which are taken at least heuristically to be true and consequential, even if they are obviously uncertain. Trump and one of his stooges made offhand remarks against the 'strong' USD and it went down well over 5%. Then it went up again when US tax cuts were projected to promote nominal 'growth' (meaning 'profit'), piling on fiscal deficits but showing a path to even more short term return on capital. (Thus the US among others is actually smash-and-grab capitalism masquerading as a state, and is functionally a ponzi scheme.) Mexico, with a national debt of something like 58% of GDP, (on the moderate side, about half of that of the US), the MXN may appreciate if AMLO spends money, as suggested in BGirls' quote above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AngusMactavish Posted June 29, 2018 Report Share Posted June 29, 2018 On 6/6/2018 at 10:17 AM, Mainecoons said: I haven't seen that estimate anywhere. Source? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jreboll Posted June 30, 2018 Report Share Posted June 30, 2018 There’s at least a dozen countries having problems with value of their money. As far as I know AMLO is only running for office here in Mexico Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johanson Posted June 30, 2018 Report Share Posted June 30, 2018 Those are his initials and he is running and apparently has a very good chance of winning. He didn't belong to a party so someone made up the name AMLO, which stands of course for Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traderspoc Posted June 30, 2018 Report Share Posted June 30, 2018 i and my wife purchased at 21.21 last week and or very happy. and what happened the peso got stronger three days later and is around 19.90, i do not have a crystal ball. i believe the election is already priced in the peso currency for it to go back to 19ish i Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonia Posted July 2, 2018 Report Share Posted July 2, 2018 Now that AMLO has won the peso is gaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jreboll Posted July 2, 2018 Report Share Posted July 2, 2018 Where’d you hear the news? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonia Posted July 2, 2018 Report Share Posted July 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, Jreboll said: Where’d you hear the news? It is all over the news including internationally. He won by a landslide. Viva Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeside7 Posted July 2, 2018 Report Share Posted July 2, 2018 12 minutes ago, Sonia said: It is all over the news including internationally. He won by a landslide. Viva Mexico. Good news...Mexicans have at last decide to take charge of their own destiny (and hopefully) the responsibility that comes with it....Stop looking NOB ..Mexicans can (and will) fix what is bad in MX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michael2595 Posted July 2, 2018 Report Share Posted July 2, 2018 5 hours ago, Sonia said: Now that AMLO has won the peso is gaining. nope. It lost a bit. Went back over the resistance line of 20.Traders are waiting to see what comes next and if his party gets the majority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Habacht Posted July 2, 2018 Report Share Posted July 2, 2018 For the last three hours the mex peso is trading above 20 to 1. The pros are not predicting a large movement either way. Most see the currency holding in the mid 19 to 1 range. Fred Habacht Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiny Posted July 2, 2018 Report Share Posted July 2, 2018 There must have been a huge sale on crystal balls and they all sold out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jreboll Posted July 2, 2018 Report Share Posted July 2, 2018 All these analysts use their political bias to cloud their judgement and influence others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonia Posted July 3, 2018 Report Share Posted July 3, 2018 Even after all the negativity by American newspapers that had done no research regarding AMLO the peso is stable. Mexicans have spoken through the ballot box. Viva Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mainecoons Posted July 3, 2018 Report Share Posted July 3, 2018 I dunno Sonia, from here it looks like the vast majority of the negativity came out of your own political and business deep states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traderspoc Posted July 3, 2018 Report Share Posted July 3, 2018 as i expected the peso would get strong with the election, peso strong business's like the new president. peso 19ish today that why i dollars for peso's when they were over 20. two weeks ago If you read anything about AMLO a good money manager, i believe the peso will at 16 in three years. he is Prudent man. Do not believe the newspapers, they have to write stories of doom and gloom to sell newspapers and get online eyeballs to look at their posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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