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What Happened to the Rains ?


cstone

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I was thrilled to have had the lovely, cooler temps for a few days and I absolutely sleep like a baby during the rains. Where have they gone ? Were those few days a one-off and we now have to wait longer ? I know somewhere I read someone had guessed the official start of the rainy season, but , IMO, that may need to be reconsidered !;)

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Looking at the following weather  LINK  you might conclude that the rainy season is not here yet. Well, there goes the lake level :(

 

Sure hope I am wrong 

PS if you do not left click on the word Link above, you will not see the daily rain chart for 2017

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1 hour ago, cstone said:

I was thrilled to have had the lovely, cooler temps for a few days and I absolutely sleep like a baby during the rains. Where have they gone ? Were those few days a one-off and we now have to wait longer ? I know somewhere I read someone had guessed the official start of the rainy season, but , IMO, that may need to be reconsidered !;)

That's just what I was saying on TOB!  Four days of great rain, now nothing for a week?  Maybe we jumped the gun a bit!

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Very odd pattern currently holding the moisture south of us.  That was a real start a couple weeks ago but high pressure rebuilt and is suppressing the convection.  Plenty of moisture in the air and heat energy but it just can't get going under these conditions.  300mb chart suggests relief in a few days but pretty likely June is going to come in well under average.

When we went to the beach in April the ocean was noticeably chillier than usual and now there's a clockwise (high) pressure circulation sitting right off the west coast, causing the air over us to flow south and east instead of the normal west and north.  Models call for this to start breaking up tomorrow.  Sure hope so.

 

 

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Thanks for the great explanation. You do know your weather, Now please work with giltner68 to change that weather page to show rain, so that I can come back to paradise. not to a terribly hot and humid imitation of southern Texas during the their hot and humid summers..

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The rainy season has not started yet. The 4 days we had rain is not unusual in the dry season.

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Yes it did.  Right on time.  The winds shifted from the east, the monsoon trough shifted north and it began to rain.  Then some sort of upper level high pressure built off the west coast, the winds reversed and it dried up.  However the surface flow still contains a lot of humidity hence it is quite uncomfortable.

The CRWS 300mb map shows it clearly.  Notice how the arrows along the west coast of Mexico and even over us are pointed south.  You can see the circular pattern.  Until this breaks up, no rain.  This pattern normally forms in the spring as the Pacific waters cool and is usually gone by now as they warm back up.

This could be a very poor rainy season.

jetstream_init_00.gif

 

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6 hours ago, johanson said:

Thanks for the great explanation. You do know your weather, Now please work with giltner68 to change that weather page to show rain, so that I can come back to paradise. not to a terribly hot and humid imitation of southern Texas during the their hot and humid summers..

I understand, Pete. I have actually been sweating the past few days. I HATE sweating. Hate it.

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Looks like the 24th might be a good restart. We're no different NOB, it's so dry the mosquitoes are buying bottle water to breed in? And, the dryer it gets, the hotter it gets. We're watching the potential of a storm in the Yucatan that one obscure model says could bring rain to TX, but the odds are better for winning the lottery.

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1 hour ago, CHILLIN said:

The answer is in the polar jetstreams, north and south. Very erratic right now, causing climates to "get stuck" - as we seem to be right now. Look it up.

 

Like this:

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/droughts-floods-from-weird-jet-stream-linked-to-arctic-heat/80841

33574525321_5d24ef2e3d_o.png

Notice the circular swirl whose center is near Mazatlan.  That is our monsoon blocking pattern.  Anyway, with the polar jet lifting out the forecasts predict the swirl moving off or dissipating.  So hopefully rains return soon.

I'm ready!

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6 hours ago, Xena said:

I understand, Pete. I have actually been sweating the past few days. I HATE sweating. Hate it.

That's easy, just get under a fan and go Vladimir Putin (topless!). If you are more modest, and practical, there are some special wicking polyester shirts, that are smooth like satin. It really does work, water or sweat dissipates all through the fabric. I beleive a lot of women wear  them up north to combat night sweats.

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5 hours ago, Mainecoons said:

Now get out there and wax it!  We need a big rain. :)

Knew I should have done that! We got enough rain here to just add spots to my clean car.

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