snowyco Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 Big Businessmen say "Trump Lost" ...as they vote with floods of money buying Mexican Pesos. The Mexican peso has strengthened 45 basis points (2.4%) due to heavy buying of MXN pesos ... as fears retreated, due to signs that Trump is failing. Ironically, the MXN Peso strengthened at the same time that oil (NYMEX Crude) fell 2.5% - which should have made the Peso weaker. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-27/peso-rebounds-from-record-low-amid-first-presidential-debate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHILLIN Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 Sorry Bud - you can't use the "T" word here. You know that. Have a nice vacation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mainecoons Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 The Pesos moves opposite the stock market to begin with. Has done that for quite some time. Not sure why. This is a pretty trivial move. Secondly, "big" business loves big government. It is called "crony capitalism." The general polling on who "won" is much more mixed. This "race" continues to be a tossup. IMHO, none of the regular folks win with what is happening to government either in the U.S. or Mexico these days. Forget about the labels or the BS rhetoric--the political establishment IS the problem in both of our countries. They are all corrupt and contemptible to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bennie2 Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 we can not discuss politics. if we can i will use the T word. the bankers manipulate currencies. MC is correct, corrupt across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowyco Posted September 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 Not discussing Trump. The point is that big business folks have been driving the MXN peso weaker these past weeks on the fears that Trump might win (as Trump's poll numbers had been rising). Some people on this board have proposed that the MXN peso moves in parallel with NYMEX crude, with the Peso getting stronger when oil prices strengthen. Today, we saw the opposite of both things happening: Big business / Wall Street / Commodities Exchanges combined to strengthen the MXN peso by 2.4%, while oil weakened by 2.5%, due to reduced fears of a Trump win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowyco Posted September 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 I personally had not been able to understand why the MXN peso weakened from $18.30's ... moving to almost $20 MXN pesos per USD during recent weeks. Investors fears over Trump's recent improving chances at winning seems to explain a lot of the recent Peso weakness. Threats of a Trump win caused us gringo's US dollars to buy almost 10% more here, but could also result in US goods at Costco to cost our Mexican friends & neighbors significantly more. I sure did not previously see a Trump effect. Where is the MXN peso headed next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mainecoons Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 Oil. The "Trump effect" is pure speculation. Nothing else. Mexico's problem isn't Trump, it is its own corrupt and incompetent government. He might put them in a position where they have to grow up and quit dumping their problems across the border. Went to Costco on Sunday, it was packed with Mexicans as usual. We usually are able to get in there earlier before the GDL mob hits it but were taking our "adopted" Mexican college kid back to school and ended up there around 1PM. Amazing crowds. Can't imagine why anyone would think that what Big Business wants is good for the people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowyco Posted September 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 I don't think it's 'pure speculation' because the MXN peso value strengthened rapidly & suddenly when it was clear from morning assessments on how Trump had done poorly during the debate. Check out the timing of when ... and how rapidly ... the MXN peso started to change... and then consider the comments of professional business men on why they were buying MXN pesos : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hud Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 Ok, snowy, we get it, now give it a rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlanMexicali Posted September 28, 2016 Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 11 hours ago, snowyco said: I don't think it's 'pure speculation' because the MXN peso value strengthened rapidly & suddenly when it was clear from morning assessments on how Trump had done poorly during the debate. Check out the timing of when ... and how rapidly ... the MXN peso started to change... and then consider the comments of professional business men on why they were buying MXN pesos : http://www.plus500.com.mx/Instruments/CL?gclid=CJj7iZ28sc8CFUVlfgod1WgDRQ How do you explain crude oil prices in the same time frame dropped from almost $46.00 USD to $44.25 - $44.76 USD in your theory? Are World wide crude oil prices also affected by the US policitical situation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowyco Posted September 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 When NYMEX crude oil prices fall a big 2% (as they did at the same morning as the MXN peso got so much stronger) the reduced oil revenues for Mexico almost always make the MXN peso weaker. The exact opposite effect happened after Trump's debate performance. Professional businessmen trading oil explained that they previously had feared a Trump win would harm Mexico's economy. They further explained that they saw Trump's poor debate performance as a strong indicator that Trump is unable to win the election, which is seen as a benefit to the future Mexican economy. Oil experts reported that NYMEX crude prices fell that same morning due to increased doubt that the Saudis & the Iranians could come to an agreement on jointly reducing oil production, The Saudis and Iranians supposedly could not agree in their current talks on how to close a 6 million barrel a day gap. When reports from the talks had indicated that they had no resolution, but also reported that both parties had agreed that they could come to some future agreement, oil prices were briefly buoyed by 3% last week. (as proof of the central cause of recent oil price volatility) As the reported tenor of the talks shifted more negative, yesterday, on the Saudis&Iranians estimated ability to resolve the arguments over the production gap, (making it look like the may NOT be a joint Saudi-Iranian deal to reduce production), oil prices fell. Today's updated reports fro m the Saudi-Iranian talks points more towards the likelihood of a future Saudi-Iran production cut agreement, and today's crude prices are rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowyco Posted September 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 28, 2016 People tracking crude prices vs the MXN peso price vs perceptions of whether Trump will be elected, can note that oil prices are rising just now, on the breaking news that crude oil inventories are surprisingly lower than expected. If Trump's weak performance was supposedly 'pure speculation' , the MXN peso should have gotten much weaker yesterday (versus how it got much stronger) ... and if Trump were not a factor, today's MXN peso values should be getting even stronger today due to today's positive news on reduced inventories & a possible production-cut agreement by the Saudis&Iranians. ... That's not happening (so far). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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