Jump to content
Chapala.com Webboard


  • Content count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won


snowyco last won the day on August 12 2016

snowyco had the most liked content!

Community Reputation

167 Excellent

1 Follower

About snowyco

  • Rank
    Advanced Member

Recent Profile Visitors

1,598 profile views
  1. Peso on the Move ... Where's It Headed ?

    That presumption is not correct. I choose assessments based on solid experts inside the USA, like US Treas. Sec. Steve Mnuchin and foreign objective sources like BBC London's financial experts, plus the assessments of groups like the IMF experts. Both the BBC and US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, plus the IMF, have tracked US economic strength & perceived strength, and they agree that " expectations about interest rates and the US economy also play a role " Overall, they see the US economic picture as weak. Not awful ... just weak & sluggish. http://www.bbc.com/news/business-40853840 and US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin on the Benefits of a Weak Dollar "Since the election": "The U.S. dollar has been considerably weaker this year. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major rivals, is down about 10 percent year to date. Since the election, it's down 5.32 percent." https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/31/mnuchin-having-a-weaker-dollar-is-better-for-us-on-trade.html Even the IMF (which is historically closely aligned with US White House policies) even announces that they have cut their growth forecasts for the US economy " due to uncertainty about White House policies." "Proposals such as cuts to spending on programmes that benefit low and middle income households could lead to even slower growth, the IMF warned." "The consultation revealed differences on a range of policies and left open questions as to whether the administration's proposed policy strategies are best suited to achieve their intended purpose," http://www.bbc.com/news/business-40421270 Currency traders follow these significant news updates from Treasury's Mnuchin, from the IMF, and from London financial experts ... and those traders have been punishing the MXN peso for the July & August (and continuing) reports of perceived US economic weakness - wagging Mexico like the tail on a big American dog.
  2. Peso on the Move ... Where's It Headed ?

    USA's economic forecast has been weaker since the 2016 November election, as US 10 year T-Bills have fallen in value. ... Immedialtely after the US 2016 Presidential elections, buyers confidence in future US government 10 yr bonds & 2 yr bonds fell, causing the US Treasury to have to raise interest rates on 10 yr notes by 32%. While most of the Industrialized World economies have been strengthening, US Govt securities continue to weaken - especially post 2016 Presidential election. Example: The European Central bank's 10 year notes strengthened ... and have continued to strengthen, as confidence in the US Govt. falls. e.g. In June 2014, the rate on the ECB deposit facility was first lowered into negative territory, to -0.1%, followed by three more cuts to ultimately go to -0.4% . Germany's 2 year and 5 year Treasury Bonds continue at -0.75% and --0.28% => where investors PAY both European Central Bank & the German Government for holding your money ... instead the US Govt. since the 2016 Presidential election have had to pay investors an extra $3 billion in interest a year ... all due to perceived US Govt weakness ... to get investors to take on riskier US T-bills versus the much safer EU & German notes. Here's a plot of the USA's official 10 year T-bill interest rates ... Note the big jump in the Nov. 18, 2016 rates ... post US Presidential election. => Loss of confidence in US Govt Treasury. https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US10Y Then look at the similar dramatic jump in 2 year US Treasury rates in Nov. 2018. => Loss of confidence.in US Govt. Treasury https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USGG2YR:IND
  3. Peso on the Move ... Where's It Headed ?

    (Edited by moderator to remove clearly political content) The troubling nature of the NAFTA talks would seem to be enough bad news to cause currency traders to move the MXN peso from it's prior $17.7 to the current weaker $18.8, Still there are some other new-recent factors. The US economy is still looking weak, with only nominal (tiny) wage gains for US workers, even with historic record low unemployment. (Too many crummy low paying service sector jobs ... and too many workers in crummy part time jobs are parts of the problem.) For anyone who doubts US economic weakness Follow the Money: The US Treasury only had to pay 1.77% interest to entice buyers to scoop up USA's 10 yr T-bills in 2016. Sadly, the US Govt must now pay 2.33% interest to get outsiders to buy our 10 yr Debt notes. That' means the USA must pay 32% more interest to finance debt. That weakness costs the US taxpayers an extra $110 Billion a year in extra interest payments. In contrast to the USA's weak +2.33% interest payments to entice people to buy US Treasury Debt, the Germans are still selling their debt at NEGATIVE interest rates ... -0.25% ... where people actually pay the German Government 0.25% for the privilege of protecting their $$ in much safer German Treasury bills. This is all important, because currency traders believe that whatever hurts the USA, ripples South and down as even bigger problems for Mexico. As the US dollar gets weaker, as the perceptions of US economic weakness grow all of that combines to cause currency traders to think that the Mexican economy will be harmed by US problems. There seems to be very little upcoming fresh good news in the pipe for the US economy, as the Fed Bankers are starting to sell-off (unwind) the massive $4.5 Trillion in US Treasury debt that the Fed bought as historical record artificial stimulus (aka Quantitative Easing ... QE) back when the Fed Banks rescued the US Treasury after the 2007 - 2009 Fiscal Crisis. Dumping ("unwinding") $4.5 Trillion of extra US Treasury Bills has never been tried before ... which makes economists & traders nervous ... nervousness which flows down in the form of weaker US dollar and weaker MXN peso values. ... Finally, don't forget the USA's $20 Trillion Debt that's significantly more than the USA's GDP,, massive Debt that is projected to only get larger with $90 billion in new additional US Military spending. https://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/05/fed-set-to-unwind-balance-sheet-this-year.html and https://ycharts.com/indicators/10_year_treasury_rate
  4. Peso on the Move ... Where's It Headed ?

    With the MXN Peso breaking $19. we've reached a point that the "experts" did not predict until next year, 2018. In another very big bet on a forward-look, the Mexican Government just made the biggest bet ever for 2018, as "The World's Largest Oil Hedge Is Complete" locking in 330 million of barrels of 2018 Mexican oil at $46 a barrel, guaranteeing a stable level of $15 billion in US dollar** revenues for the Mexican Gob's 2018 budget. **Notice that since the hedge contracts were negotiated in US Dollars (just like in the past) ... even if the Mexican Peso falls ... the Mexican Gob. still collects it's oil revenues in US dollars, which softens the blows when the MXN peso weakens vs the US Dollar. Historical Context: the Mexican Gob. has made some really shrewd oil hedging contracts in the past, as they locked-in $76 a barrel oil when the price fell to $50 a barrel (saddling 7 big banks, NY + Deutsche Bank + Barclays with huge losses) ... and then Mexico locked in the next round of hedging contracts at $48, as the price then fell down to $20 a bbl (again saddling big Wall Street banks with huge losses). Which way will things go this time ? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-16/mexico-says-world-s-largest-oil-hedge-has-been-completed and https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-04-04/uncovering-the-secret-history-of-wall-street-s-largest-oil-trade
  5. Peso on the Move ... Where's It Headed ?

    So ... The MXN peso has weakened much faster & much more ... and 2 months sooner than some 'experts' predicted ... Will it continue to weaken ? History shows that confidence in MXN pesos is often the tail of a very big American dog. ... The MXN peso gets wagged around due to no fault of it's own, and is a reflection of problems (or strength) in the USA. ... Since no one has said it: Confidence in USA & the US dollar & Government have been steadily falling ... as the USD has fallen 13% vs the Euro, Pound Sterling, and even the Loonie. Notice that the Germans are selling their 10 year bonds at a NEGATIVE 0.25% (yes, a bondholder has to pay ~ gets less $$ at the end of 10 years) ... while the USA 10Yr bond yields have been doing the opposite ... losing value ~ sliding dramatically ... due to worldwide recent loss of confidence in the US economy~ and huge losses of confidence in the US Govt. .... Proof? ... Notice how US 10 yr bonds have fallen ~slid~ a full 17% over just the last 6 weeks. This means that US taxpayers must now pay out an extra 17% higher interest to finance their $20 Trillion rapidly growing debt ... having to pay 2.37% out to creditors, while the Germans actually collect 0.25% in gains on selling their government debt. In the world where the MXN peso gets bashed for US economic~govt. problems ... the latest round of deep confidence losses in USA fiscal future appear to be making traders especially nervous & negative about MXN peso values ... because the USA & Mexico's economies are so intertwined ... The fiscal data say that the USA's problems are dragging down confidence in Mexico's economy. ... *sigh* The next few months of US Treasury rates (up or down) may be the best indicator of what fickle currency traders pay for MXN pesos. Check out the last 6 weeks of US 10 yr Treasury bond yields. (click on link below to see how nervous big money$$ is about the USA ) ... The latest 6 week slide in MXN peso values mirrors the USA's slide in US 10 year T-bill rate$ ... even though NY-Mex Crude Oil values have been rising during the same period. ?? http://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart
  6. Peso on the Move ... Where's It Headed ?

    . Interesting plot. I didn't realize that Forex used XE.com's currency mid-maket trading data - but it makes sense because XE.com handles so much of the USD-MXN exchanges. (e.g. Panda does zero trades in MXN pesos - but they still quote pseudo-rates ... and Mexico's national bank rates are from the day before - not current.) Another way of saying all this: The Forex "plot" is an exact copy of XE.com's plot & XE.com data that I showed above. ... I had imagined that the Forex platforms used their own data ... but, since XE is the IRS's & US Treasury's source of data, it makes sense the Forex would use XE.
  7. Peso on the Move ... Where's It Headed ?

    The $22 to 1 was (and is) a popular myth among many expats ... Cocktail chatter & coffee-klatch fodder. The real-world $$ prices to buy MXN pesos only touched a one-time maximum of $21.65 for part of 1 day ... meaning that you'd have to be a genius market-timer to get even $21.50. The real-world buying price for pesos was at~over $21.35 for only 3 days .... which meant we only had a brief 1 week window to buy MXN pesos at even $21 pesos per USD. Coffee & cocktail chatter are fun, but ... Should we invest our hard-earned savings based on popular gossip ?
  8. Peso on the Move ... Where's It Headed ?

    Hey Pete, When could you buy MXN pesos for $22 ? The official market Buy prices for buying MXN pesos never got above $21.65 and even the Peso's mid-market values peso never got above $21.96. Plus, the peso mid-market prices only touched the $21.96 peak briefly for half a day back on January 19. Odd?? Does your broker have some 'bajo del mesa' unofficial source of pesos? http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=MXN&view=1Y
  9. Forecasts are fun. How did this set of expert predictions (posted 10 days ago) work out? We're 6 days into October, and the MXN Peso is officially at 18.53. ===================================================== Peso to Dollar Forecast Mexican Peso to US Dollar Exchange Rates Forecast Values Mexico New Peso per One U.S. Dollar. Average of Month. Month Date Forecast Value Avg Error 0 Aug 2017 17.797 ±0.00 1 Sep 2017 17.76 ±0.22 2 Oct 2017 17.98 ±0.30 3 Nov 2017 18.29 ±0.35 4 Dec 2017 18.66 ±0.40 5 Jan 2018 20.09 ±0.44 6 Feb 2018 19.26 ±0.48 ================================================== The expert predicted no higher than 18.28 ... but we've zoomed past that 'expert' mark and are now at a 3% weaker MXN peso than the expert prediction ... approaching the expert's December value, 2 months ahead of their schedule (aka guess). Where's it headed next ? Why?
  10. CCleaner news: bad.

    We got the same malware warnings, contamination from CCleaner's last updates, as detected & removed by AVG on our computers this week .
  11. . Over half of Americans' personal information has been stolen from Equifax - as Equifax has lost our ... Drivers License info, Social Security Numbers, birthdates & addresses. The link below offers 7 actions each of us can take to try to remedy the problems. . https://yucalandia.com/2017/09/08/143-million-credit-information-accounts-hacked-at-experian-what-to-do/
  12. New competition for Pemex in the GDL area

    . Rather than adopting personal opinions of local forum pundits, why not consider following official public statements from BP , that have specifically announced~highlighted that they are not selling PEMEX gas. " This would also reportedly mark the first fueling location in Mexico to be operated and branded by a multinational oil company, as well as ~the first not supplied by its state oil company Pemex~ , since the country began deregulating its fuel market in 2013. " "... BP, previously known as British Petroleum, yesterday opened its first gas station in Mexico, reportedly the only one in the country that ~sells fuel that is not supplied by the state oil company Pemex ~ . " BP's Pricing is also not dictated by PEMEX per BP announcements: "... The new BP stations will charge “market prices” for the fuel, company executives said, and given a gradual phase-out of government-set fuel prices ... " (March 2013) http://www.cspdailynews.com/fuels-news-prices-analysis/fuels-news/articles/bp-retail-enters-mexico http://www.reuters.com/article/us-bp-mexico-gasoline/bp-plans-entry-into-mexicos-once-closed-retail-gasoline-market-idUSKBN16G37O http://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/bp-opens-gas-station-in-satelite-naucalpan/
  13. New competition for Pemex in the GDL area

    . "Gasoline is gasoline, refined from crude oil and sent through pipelines to storage facilities and mixed with that from other refineries." Are you proposing that gasoline from cracking & refining heavy high-sulfur crude is the same as gasoline from light sweet West Texas crude? Should we expect that winter-formulated (high volatility) gasoline is the same as summer-formulated (low volatility) gasoline? Should we expect that gasolines formulated for low altitudes (higher octane ratings for sea level sales) are the same as high-altitude formulations for sale in Mexico City (lower octane ratings)? ====================================================== Univ. of Illinois Results for Different Brands of Gasoline: We did our first Gas Chromatographic (GC) analyses on gasolines from 4 different local stations (different brands) at University of Illinois back in the early 1970's, and each station's gasoline had a distinct signature of different hydrocarbons, present at very different amounts, very different from the other 3. Colorado State University Results: We repeated these GC analyses of 5 different brands of gasoline at Colorado State University in the early and again in the late 1980's and found that each of the 5 brands of gasoline from our local stations had unique signature compositions, that were each very different from the other 4 brands. ... Further, the Colorado gasolines were also different than the chemical signatures of the Illinois gasolines. Alfred University Results: We repeated these GC analyses of 4 yet still different brand of gasoline at Alfred University in the late 1980's, and found that each of the 4 brands of gasoline from our local upstate New York stations had unique signature compositions, that were each very different from the other 4 local upstate NY brands. Further, the upstate NY gasolines were also different than the chemical signatures of the Illinois gasolines and the Colorado gasolines. Analytical Technologies Laboratories Results: We repeated these GC analysis, adding GC Mass Spectroscopy testing results, and found that Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Florida ,California, and Mexican sold gasoline brands were different from each other. Paragon Analytics Results: We repeated these GC analysis, adding GC Mass Spectroscopy testing results, at Paragon Analytics, and found that Colorado, Wyoming, New Mexican, Kansas, Massachusetts, Texas and Italian sold gasoline brands were distinctly different from each other. As a result of 40 years of gasoline analyses from at least 12 different states and 3 different countries, I've personally seen testing results that showed that gasoline formulations vary between brands, between refineries, and between states. ... The source of feedstock crude, the catalyst & catalytic conditions, the sulfur content, the differing refining conditions, winter vs summer gasoline blends, and specific additives all contribute to chemically~scientifically measurable differences between different brands and different types of gasolines.
  14. Check in procedure at airport?

    . Please cite the Article No. & subsection of the DOF publications of INM Law and~or INM Reglamentos, or in the INM operations manual that supposedly documents your personal opinion. Carefull and extensive searches of all three documents have shown there is no mention that a foreigner exiting the country by air travel must supposedly have their "Exiting Mexico" half of the FMM form approved at any particular airport. ComputerGuy unfortunately adds his own personal opinion that supposedly only the INM office at the airport of the deporting flight is the supposedly only one allowed to grant the approval for the foreigner to exit Mexico by air travel. Fortunately, each of us is free to choose which option we want to try. Each of us is free to submit our FMM at the Guadalajara airport INM office to get formal official approval to exit Mexico on a connecting flight that departs later that day from Mexico City's Benito Juarez airport.
  15. What happened to summer?

    . "" CO2 is what plants eat and in greenhouses, they pump it in to help the plants grow better. It can't be totally bad stuff " Yes, increased CO2 makes some things grow better ... like when we the high CO2 world with 3 ft Dragonflies .... and 7 FOOT ~flying~ COCKROACHES ...